Dynamic Equities Analysis
Enlacing Opportunity - MODAR - Momentum Radar
Special Report: July and 2nd Half Outlook - 0912 Tuesday July 05 2005
Good Morning: Following the fairly decent $4 pullback in Crude Oil last week, the market dug its heels in yet again and went on a pre-holiday surge back towards the $60 mark, led by Heating Oil which roared to new all time record highs. Whilst this is still somewhat of an anomaly, the Heating Oil going to substantial new highs, so far unconfirmed by any other Energy component has satisfied the technical requirement for a top to be put in place. However, unfortunately, the potential double 3~4 wave structure in the Crude Oil, barring any sudden price breakdown, is beginning to potentially set the stage for a blow-off top that could take us all the way to the high range numbers we mentioned last week as anywhere from $66 to $75. However, much depends on how the Energy complex behaves in the coming days and to some extent on the upcoming inventory numbers also. A breakdown from here could still be damaging to the Energy markets bullish structures, but the buying intensity exhibited Friday kind of put the Oil markets in a whole new light, that could have consequences for Equity markets if we get that blow-off surge that now threatens. The good news being, should such an event happen is that it would likely put a significant 5th wave top in for some time to come.
For Gold bulls, should a blow-off occur, it would likely be helpful to the Precious Metals markets, which pulled back last week, but could also easily rebound and surge higher with similar authority. These high prices in Energy are bound to be reflected in the CPI and PPI soon and that might be enough to send Gold and Silver to new 2005 highs. Meantime the US Dollar met and exceeded our new target of 90 on the Dollar Index and the Japanese Yen broke down through 90 also. What will be vitally important to the whole outlook for the remainder of 2005, is how the US Dollar will unfold, now that it has potentially over-stretched on the upside.
The falling Euro has been bullish for European Bourses as their values have soared against same and that has helped US issues higher also. A weaker US Dollar going forward would likely be helpful to US Equities in the same way and a substantially weaker US unit, could render in a repeat of the huge 4th Quarter gains of 2004.
Our MODAR Momentum Radar Service continues to perform exceedingly well. Just in case anyone believes this is not real: Just last week a Professional Bond Trading desk that has been receiving our alerts for some time now, sent us this heady testimonial:
"We appreciate your advice. We know you're incredibly committed and doing a fantastic job! We have never seen anyone with such impressive gains. Keep those screaming buys coming: We have never participated in any stocks with such huge gains!"
Of course, we have no idea how long we can maintain the high level of consistency so far and cannot guarantee performance, but Friday alone delivered one 95% return and we identified several other 50-100 percenters over the past few days. On Thursday, an issue we first highlighted in a Modar Alert several days ago, ran up 70% towards the close of trading that day. We elected to add to this position with just 4 minutes trading remaining and rather astonishingly, it closed up 100% on massive last minute buying. We calculated that it would rise another 25% ~ 30% the next day, which actually happened before succumbing to profit-taking.
Market Update and Outlook
Overnight, we added approximately $10,517 to the Equity Reflective Performance Ledger bringing the total to $766,756 and added $3,340 to our Futures Reflective Live Round-the-clock Real Time Performance Index at $183,500 on our total closed out positions.
Have a Great Tuesday and Week - Trade Well
Savant / See Clearly...
DATE
$DENOM
PRMLGT
SYMBL
ENTR
EXIT
STATUS
% DIFF
$AMOUNT
TOTAL
VARIED
$10,000
BUY
WNDXQ
0.90
1.43
CLSD
53.00%
+$5,300
+$5,300
ACCUM
$10,000
BUY - NET
NWMV
12.70
20.20
CLSD
59.05$
+$5,905
+$11,205
DATES
$10,000
BUY
TDYH
3.95
6.05
CLSD
53.16%
+$5,316
+$16,521
BETA
$20,000
BUY
CITC
3.84
5.90
CLSD
2x53.64%
+$10,729
+$27,250
LEADUP
$20,000
BUY
FBGO
0.25
0.80
CLSD
2x220.0%
+$44,000
+$71,250
April 2005 ~ LIVE MODAR REAL TIME ~ Summary
DATE
$DENOM
PRMLGT
SYMBL
ENTR
EXIT
STATUS
% DIFF
$AMOUNT
TOTAL
01/04/05
$10,000
BUYS 26
26 TTL
FOR
WEEK 1
APR 05
2 DAYS
+$31,514
+$31,514
08/04/05
$10,000
BUYS 92
118 TTL
FOR
WEEK 2
APR 05
5 DAYS
+$93,712
+$125,226
15/04/05
$10,000
BUYS 43
161 TTL
FOR
WEEK 3
APR 05
5 DAYS
+$69,084
+$194,310
22/04/05
$10,000
BUYS 64
225 TTL
FOR
WEEK 4
APR 05
5 DAYS
+$41,522
+$235,832
29/04/05
$10,000
BUYS 65
290 GTL
FOR
WEEK 5
APR 05
5 DAYS
+$68,093
+$303,925
May - 2005 ~ LIVE MODAR REAL TIME ~ Summary
DATE
$DENOM
PRMLGT
SYMBL
ENTR
EXIT
STATUS
% DIFF
$AMOUNT
TOTAL
06/05/05
$10,000
BUYS 50
50 TTL
FOR
WEEK 1
MAY 06
5 DAYS
+$59,275
+$363,200
11/05/05
$10,000
BUYS 32
82 TTL
FOR
WEEK 2
MAY 11
5 DAYS
+$76,721
+$439,921
20/05/05
$10,000
BUYS 37
119 TTL
FOR
WEEK 3
MAY 20
5 DAYS
+$54,509
+$494,430
27/05/05
$10,000
BUYS 40
159 TTL
FOR
WEEK 4
MAY 29
5 DAYS
+$44,388
+$538,818
03/05/05
$10,000
BUYS 54
213 GTL
FOR
WEEK 5
JUN 05
5 DAYS
+$68,093
+$591,483
June 2005 ~ LIVE MODAR REAL TIME ~ Summary
DATE
$DENOM
